I do not think so. The time for a referendum to succeed was at its most auspicious in 1999. Most of the mainline media campaigned for a Yes vote, and most sitting politicians were in support. The republican campaign was very well funded. A number of events which suggested change was appropriate were relied on: the Olympic Games, the centenary of Federation, a new century, and a new millennium. Prince Charles marriage had broken down, and Diana, Princess of Wales had been killed in car accident.
Recent polling shows support for a republic has fallen to levels not seen for fifteen years, and support among young Australians is falling (“Collapse! Young Australians kill off republic,” Australians for Constiutional Monarchy,8 May 2008).
Experience indicates that whenever the same or a similar question has been put to Australians in a referendum, the voters have again said No.
Much will depend on the model proposed. Few republicans propose a US style republic, which has worked if you disregard the Civil War and the paralysis in government which can occur when an impeachment of the President is threatened.
It is unlikely the voters would approve of the model rejected in 1999. If the model involves the popular election of the President, one leading republican, Professor Greg Craven says that after the people hear the argument that this will lead to governmental instability, the result will be a bigger defeat than in 1999.
That is why the republicans propose any referendum be preceded by a plebiscite where no details would be given. This could not in itself be used to change the constitution, but it would invite a vote of no confidence in one of the world’s most successful constitutions and would be likely to result in years of constitutional instability.
The republicans who prefer a directly elected plebiscite want a second referendum where the people would choose among republican models but not be allowed to indicate any preference for the existing system. Other republicans are opposed to a second plebiscite because they fear the people would prefer to elect the president if the country were to become a republic.
